Ron Paul's Delegate Wars (I)

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Ron Paul's Delegate Wars (I)

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The Ron Paul campaign's struggle to secure delegates to the Republican National Convention looks like the most exciting, if not the most important, underreported story of the year.
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by George Dance
(Libertarian)
Sunday, April 13, 2008

This is a story still in progress. It records an ongoing series of skirmishes being fought sporadically across America, with little publicity, under arcane rules that make it difficult to determine winners and losers. The final outcome will not be known for months. Yet it could be the most important story of the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, and how it unfolds could affect that party's future more than any other single event this year.

That story is the ongoing struggle of the Ron Paul campaign to secure the largest possible number of delegates to the Republican Convention this Sept. 1-4. I have followed that struggle with interest since February, but have been discouraged from writing about it; some Paul supporters thought that it would reflect badly on the campaign for it to become generally known. However, now that some mainstream media are beginning to report on it, I think it best to start writing myself on this most exciting, if not most important, underreported story of the year.

Many Americans may think that the National Delegates have already been chosen. I used to myself: Before this year, I always thought that delegate slates were presented and elected on primary or caucus day. From following the Paul campaign, though, I have learned that that is not how it works.

How it does work varies from state to state; but the process generally follows this order: First, party members gather in local caucuses and choose delegates to county conventions. Next, the county conventions elect delegates to state and congressional district conventions. Finally, the state and district conventions elect the National Delegates.

Some National Delegates are bound to vote for the state primary or caucus winner through the entire ballotting. Others must do so on only the first two ballots; others on only the first ballot. In still other states, delegates are not bound to vote for the winner at all; the primary or caucus result counts as no more than a straw poll.

The Paul campaign has remained focused on securing delegates, rather than on primary or caucus vote totals. "Our goal has always been to walk into the national GOP convention with as many delegates as possible," said Ron Paul 2008 campaign manager Lew Moore. "The number of delegates we [win] could very well be the difference in a Convention where no one has a first-ballot majority."

Even though McCain now appears to have a first-ballot win clinched, the Paul campaign continues to pursue the same goal. There are good reasons to do so. For one, Paul needs to be nominated by five states in order to appear on the ballot, and have a chance to speak at the convention. For another, delegates will determine the 2008 election platform; for the Paul campaign, which is about ideas rather than personalities, the platform is as important as the nominee.

Thus the Delegate Wars continue, state by state, county by county, delegate by delegate.

"Ron Paul National Delegate Count Now 42 or More ," Ron Paul 2008, Feb. 6, 2008. www.ronpaul2008.com/press-releases/237/ron-paul-national-delegate-count-now-42-or-more/

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Full article at nolanchart.com

[PapaSmurerf]

Ron Paul's Delegate Wars (II)

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Ron Paul's "true believers" continue the fight for a brokered Republican convention -- and score some big wins.
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by George Dance
(Libertarian)
Sunday, April 20, 2008

Ask Ron Paul why he remains in the Republican race for President, and he will speak about giving true conservatives someone to vote for. Ask him what he hopes to accomplish, and he will mention adopting a conservative platform, winning the battle of ideas, rallying a new generation to the cause, and the like.

All noble and worthy objectives. However, there are hints that something else may be afoot.

One big hint comes from an unlikely source: Hillary Clinton. Last month, Clinton told Newsweek magazine:

I have a very close race with Senator Obama. There are elected delegates, caucus delegates and superdelegates, all for different reasons, and they're all equal in their ability to cast their vote for whomever they choose. Even elected and caucus delegates are not required to stay with whomever they are pledged to. This is a very carefully constructed process that goes back years, and we're going to follow the process. [stress added]

Clinton is right. There is a difference between "pledged" delegates and "bound" delegates. Some pledged delegates are bound: that is, they must vote as per the primary or caucus results for their state. Others, though, are unbound: they are free to vote for the candidate of their choice. The Clinton campaign has been taking advantage of that, encouraging delegates pledged to Obama to defect. Meanwhile, the Obama campaign does the same thing: For instance, though Clinton won the Texas primary, Obama now claims the majority of Texas delegates.

On the Republican side, the Ron Paul Republicans (RPR) -- the part of Paul's grassroots rEVOLution that has stayed with him in the Republican Party -- pursues the same tactic. There the odds are much steeper: Officially McCain has a majority of pledged delegates, while Paul has won just 21. However, the RPR -- as Paul calls them, the "true believers" -- are not simply giving up. Their goal now is to deny McCain a first-ballot win, forcing a brokered convention.

One such true believer is Dr. Steve Parent. A former 6-year Democratic functionary, Dr. Parent now serves as unofficial commander of the Delegate Wars. Since February he has been explaining the strategy on RPR venues like The Daily Paul and Ron Paul Forums.

Parent points out that, of the 2,380 GOP National Delegates, 651 are unbound. If that percentage holds true for McCain's share, then, of his over 1,300 pledged delegates, less than 1,000 are bound. If just 225 of McCain's unbound delegates defect (to anyone) on the first ballot, he will not get a majority and there will be a second ballot (for which he will have only 650 bound delegates). At that point, it will be any nominated candidate's convention to win.

Parent also notes that those odds can be improved. Not only can state conventions elect a majority of Ron Paul supporters as National Delegates: they can also legally unbind those delegates, further cutting into McCain's fragile lead. Hence Parent devotes his time to showing Meetups and other RPR groups, in detail, how to win both state conventions and the county conventions where state delegates are elected.

Another true believer is Hans Lysglimt of farmann.com, the English-language website of Norwegian free-market magazine Farmann, who has prepared a series of videos -- some purely motivational, others highly detailed -- on how "Ron Paul can Win the Nomination."

Indeed, there are many such videos on You Tube. In the face of all media and public scorn, a surprising amount of true believers are convinced that Ron Paul can still win, and have dedicated themselves to making that possibility a reality.

Paul himself says nothing to encourage such talk. But he enthusiastically continues his own campaign for the remaining delegates in the 10 states yet to hold primaries. He has spent most of April in Pennsylvania, which votes Apr. 22 (the first primary since the GOP contest became a two-man race). Meanwhile his campaign continues to open new offices and launch new ads, most recently in Idaho (which holds its primary May 27).

Thus the true believers continue the rEVOLution by fighting the Delegate Wars -- scoring some big wins along the way, as this week's featured states show.


* "Hillary Clinton: Pledged Delegates Can Switch Candidates," Huffington Post, Mar. 10, 2008. www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/10/hillary-clinton-pledged-_n_90697.html
* W. Gardner Selby, "Obama campaign says he won Texas," Austin American-Statesman, Mar. 30, 2008. www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories/local/03/30/0330conventions.html
* Steve Parent, "WE CAN WIN : Keep this up extremely important: How we are winning with the delegate process explained in depth," The Daily Paul, Mar. 16, 2008. www.dailypaul.com/node/42901
* Hans Lysglimt, "Ron Paul, Argumentation To Delegates Part 1", farmanntv, You Tube, Mar. 22, 2008. www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQ5NCRuVitc

Minnesota
On Feb. 5, Paul netted 16% in the Minnesota caucuses and won four counties: Lincoln, Meeker, Red Lake, and Blue Earth. The vote was non-binding.

That achievement represented only the RPR's first effort in Minnesota. In their latest, as reported by the Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune Apr. 7, "they captured six of a dozen GOP national convention delegates elected at congressional district [CD] meetings in the 4th, 5th, and 6th Districts."

So far, the Star Tribune adds, "Delegates have been selected in six of the state's eight congressional districts, with Paul supporters winning seven of the 24 seats chosen to date. Six more delegates will be selected in the remaining two districts, and [eight] will be chosen at the state party convention next month."

Marianne Stebbins, the Paul campaign's State Co-ordinator, told the paper that "If we get enough delegates, we'll be able to get [Paul] speaking time at the convention." She described the RPR as "just a bunch of disorganized people who happened to get lucky. At least that's the impression we want to leave."

In the 6th CD, chairman Andy Aplikowski became almost apopleptic on finding that two of the three elected delegates (and all three alternates) were Paul supporters, and moved to bind them all to vote for McCain. According to the Minnesota Monitor, the motion passed after "RNC officials contacted during the event said that party rules dictate that delegates to the national convention must endorse John McCain or see their votes tossed out." (However, the state party constitution forbids CD conventions from binding delegates.)

In contrast, a delegate reports that in the 5th CD, "three Ron Paul supporters were elected to the three National delegate spots at our convention. Our convention was orderly and the party leadership ran our convention with class, showing respect for everyone in the room. I know that our story isn't as sexy as the CD-6 story which seems to be generating more heat than light, but I feel it's one that should be reported alongside it."

* Bob von Sternberg & Kevin Duchschere, "Paul backers manage to nab delegates," Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Apr. 7, 2008. www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/17374639.html
* Tomas Martone, "Ron Paul Supporters Accused of Hijacking Delegates," Nolan Chart, Apr. 8, 2008. www.nolanchart.com/article3399.html
* Steve Perry, "Paul backers stage (failed) delegate coup at GOP district conventions," Minnesota Monitor, Apr. 7, 2008. www.minnesotamonitor.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3637
* Marianne, "Comment" on Perry, op.cit.

Missouri
Paul took only 4.5% of the vote in Missouri's Feb. 5 primary, which was won by John McCain. However, the RPR did much better at the county conventions the following month, winning between 1/5 and 1/3 of delegates to the state convention on May 31.

In St. Charles Co., Paul supporters organized a Conservative Values coalition, which dominated the convention and filled 111 of 137 state delegate slots. The convention also passed several amendments to the state platform, plus a motion to give National Delegates an option to not vote for the primary winner.

In Jackson Co., the RPR passed a motion to unbind Missouri's national delegates, and voted in a full slate of 175 Ron Paul state delegates after County Chairman Bunk Farrington led a walkout of Party regulars.

In Greene Co., Paul suporters elected 72 of 112 state delegates.

The RPR also dominated the Boone Co. convention. A 61-year-old grandmother, attending her first convention ever, had this to say of the experience: "Although I was concerned about the intentions of the Ron Paul supporters in the room, everyone was very polite and civil to one another, and I am convinced that those young supporters of Ron Paul would be the first ones to step up and volunteer to defend this country if we were threatened in any way."

* Steven Brooks, "Ron Paul: Shock and Awe in Missouri, " Nolan Chart, Mar. 18, 2008. www.nolanchart.com/article3232.html
* Kalen Ponche, "Ron Paul supporters take control of Republican caucus," St. Charles Journal, Mar. 8, 2008. stcharlesjournal.stltoday.com/articles/2008/03/18/news/doc47e01f744db32094092795.txt
* George Dance, "Pure Bunk," Nolan Chart, Apr. 17, 2008. www.nolanchart.com/article3478.html
bedr1, "Sw Missouri Results Ron Paul Takes Greene County, MO UPDATE!!", The Daily Paul, March 15, 2008. www.dailypaul.com/node/42764
* Jane Stuart, "61-year-old grandmother recalls her first Republican caucus," Columbia Missourian, Apr. 2, 2008. www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2008/04/02/61-year-old-grandmother-recalls-her-first-republic/

Nevada
Ron Paul came second (beating John McCain) in the Nevada caucuses, and won Nye County outright. At the Mar. 9 Nye Co. convention, "Of the 65 delegates elected to go to the Nevada State Convention, 42 were Ron Paul supporters (64%)! We also got three planks added to the county platform regarding: Opposing a National ID card, Eliminating the Federal Reserve System, ... and Repealing the McCain-Feingold Act." Party unity was a key theme. Says Republican Central Committee Chairman Fely Quitevis: "The Ron Paul people, we gave them enough time on the floor and they were heard. It came out good."

Party unity was also a major theme at the Clark Co. convention, Mar. 8, in Las Vegas. State Republican Chairwoman Sue Lowden "got big cheers" when she announced that Ron Paul would speak at the state convention Apr. 26. Lowden told the RPR: "I welcome you to join our Republican Party, to stay a part of this engaging conversation." Reports the Las Vegas Review-Journal, "A record number of state delegates volunteered, 895.... Since that is less than the number allowed, they were all made [state] delegates without an election." [stress added]

Western Freedom, "RP scores in Nye County GOP Convention - Nevada," The Daily Paul, Mar. 9, 2008. www.dailypaul.com/node/41819
Christina Eichelkraut, "GOP convenes in Beatty center," Pahrump Valley Times, Mar. 12, 2008. www.pahrumpvalleytimes.com/2008/Mar-12-Wed-2008/news/20271707.html
Molly Ball, "Speakers play up outlook for GOP," Las Vegas Review-Journal, Mar. 9, 2008. www.lvrj.com/news/16429526.html

North Dakota
North Dakota (where Paul received 21% in caucus on Feb. 5, and won 5 pledged delegates) held its state convention in Fargo on the weekend of Mar. 28-29. On Mar. 30, Josh Whitford filed a terse report on his blog: "What a week and weekend it has been here in Fargo, ND. Leading up to this weekend I have been preparing and helping Ron Paul to organize with the state convention for the Republican Party.... I am happy to report that Ron Paul will be receiving 11 of the 23 delegates up for grabs at the National Convention this September in St. Paul, MN."

Josh Whitford, "State Convention," Josh’s Unconventional Marketing Blog, Mar. 30, 2008. www.joshwhitford.com/2008/03/30/Sunday%E2%80%99s-random-rants-3-30/

(To be continued ... )

[PapaSmurerf]

Ron Paul's Delegate Wars (III)

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Are things about to get nasty? No, they already have.
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by George Dance
(Libertarian)
Sunday, April 27, 2008

Perhaps this installment of "Delegate Wars" should be subtitled, "The Empire Strikes Back." The Paul campaign's delegate-capturing strategy has spawned the inevitable backlash. The Republican National Committee (RNC) and John McCain's campaign, which have effectively merged into one organization, have sent out the word that the RPR is to be stopped at all costs, and Party officials have been rallying to the cause.

At some county conventions, officials have been bringing out their own troops by warning of takeovers and hijackings; at others, they have gone so far as ejecting Paul delegates (see the Texas report below).

At some district conventions, delegates have been told to sign pledges to vote for McCain, and Paul backers stripped of their credentials if they refused.

In some states, mention of Dr. Paul and his candidacy has been purged from party websites.

In the most egregious example of all, the Republican leadership shut down the Nevada state convention last night before it could elect any National Delegates, when it looked like Paul would win a majority.

What are they so afraid of?

For one thing, McCain's forces know that it is still possible for him to lose the nomination. As explained in Delegate Wars (II), not all of McCain's pledged delegates are bound (required by state party rules) to vote for him on the first ballot. Unbound delegates are free to vote for any other candidate; if enough do, McCain gets no majority and the race goes to a second ballot (for which he will have even less bound delegates). At which point, it becomes an open contest that anyone can win.

Which I think is why Romney and Huckabee, even though they have both endorsed McCain, have not released their delegates, and why I predict they will both be on the ballot. If McCain wins the nomination on the first ballot, neither of them will have done him any harm. If he does not, though, either one suddenly has a chance at the nomination. On the other hand, if either one is eliminated, he can try to throw his votes to McCain to save him as the nominee (and give himself a leg up in the undeclared race to be McCain's running mate).

A convention full of unbound delegates supporting Ron Paul must give the RNC nightmares. Even worse would be what some radical Paul supporters are calling for, an open revolt of bound delegates. In the RNC world, conventions are a TV opportunity, free advertising for the party and its nominee; delegates no more than clapping, cheering, signwaving props. (Most definitely not "Ron Paul" signs, either.)

So the RNC/McCain camp battles to eliminate every vestige of dissent from the convention. Meanwhile, the Ron Paul campaign fights on to win largest possible share of delegates for its own good reasons (as Assistant Campaign Manager Debbie Hopper explains in an inspiring video, "We Only Have One Shot At This!").

Things are about to get nasty. No, that's not quite true: They already have.

Jo Mannies, "GOP cracks down on Ron Paul activists," St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Apr. 20, 2008.
www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/missouristatenews/story/64CF6ED868C2A80286257431000BBF84

R.S. Davis, "RPR: A Call to Arms for Ron Paul Supporters!", Nolan Chart, Apr. 26, 2008. www.nolanchart.com/article3576.html

J. Patrick Coolican, "Ron Paul campaign dominates convention," Las Vegas Sun, Apr. 27, 2008. www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/apr/27/ron-paul-campaign-dominates-convention/

Richard Bohan, "Party Leadership Walks Out," Nolan Chart, Apr. 27, 2008. www.nolanchart.com/article3583.html

Paul Willwin, "Can Ron Paul Still Win?", Ron Paul Chat, Mar. 10, 2008. www.ronpaulchat.net/drpaulwillwin.html

Debbie Hopper, "We Only Have One Shot At This!", Become a Delegate, Mar. 5, 2008. www3.webng.com/ronpaul/becomedelegate.html

Maine
Nolan chart columnist Gary Wood reported back on Feb. 4: "According to a press release by Jesse Benton, of the Ron Paul campaign, the Texas Congressman, with his message of liberty and freedom, has already picked up 215 of the total 608 Maine state delegates. This number could increase as results come in from the final 6 counties. 35% of the state delegates place him second behind Mitt Romney even though McCain has a slight lead in the popular vote....

"Although many major newspapers are giving all 18 Maine National Delegates to Mitt Romney that is not the case. State delegates in Maine are [unbound]. The actual allocation of the 18 national delegates will not be determined until May 2 when the Maine Republican Party State Convention is going to be held and the state delegates will then decide."

Gary Wood, "Ron Paul Second in Maine State Delegates with 35%," Nolan Chart, Feb. 4, 2008. www.nolanchart.com/article2454.html

Oklahoma
From The Oklahoman of Apr. 20: "Paul supporters have won five of the 15 national GOP delegates already selected at Oklahoma's congressional district conventions, Oklahoma Republican Party Chairman Gary Jones said." (Those delegates, though, are bound for the first ballot: 3 to McCain, 2 to Huckabee.) "They also won several of the 15 alternates selected at the conventions.... It's expected Paul's supporters will turn out to add to that count when state Republicans gather May 2-3 in Tulsa to elect 23 at-large delegates and 23 alternates to the national convention, he said."

Michael McNutt, "Texas congressman may grab more delegates," The Oklahoman, Apr. 20, 2008. newsok.com/article/3232480/1208651544

Texas
On his blog, "The Paulist Papers -- Stories about the Ron Paul Revolution," journalist Patrick Brendel chronicles some gripping accounts of Delegate Wars battles. Here is his take on events at the Harris County convention:

Bob Fulkerson is in Houston. It's March 28, the night before the state senate district convention, the final step in the biennial ritual to determine delegates to the Texas Republican Convention.

There will be a strong Ron Paul presence at the Congressional District 18 meeting a subset of the larger state Senate District 6 he learns. Supporters will make up 40 percent of the CD-18 attendance. They will not have the majority, so they decide to keep candidate affiliation a secret. Instead of blimps, fliers and t-shirts, r3VOLutionaries will identify themselves by wearing Band-Aids on their hands....

They keep quiet and vote as one bloc. In CD-18, supporters sweep the six delegate spots, taking four of the alternates. In the larger SD-6, they comprise about one-third of the 45 selections to the state convention, according to Fulkerson....

"I didn't see any factions or anything like that. I saw a whole group of people, the entire delegation, that was supportive of Sen. McCain," the county chair says.

In Victoria Co., "Band-Aids aren't necessary... They contemplate wearing blue shirts or name tags to the convention, but reconsider. By the time the convention arrives, they know they have the numbers to take over by sheer force.... When the time comes to elect the permanent chair of the convention, the Paul supporters make their move ('an uprising of Young Turks,' teacher says). The Turks comprise two-thirds of the attendance. It is a stunning, mostly bloodless coup. The deposed GOP leaders, to their credit, handle defeat with aplomb, Marek says. The supporters, in turn, let them retain one spot in each committee. They also allow them five delegates to the state convention, reserving a spot for the state representative of five terms."

Similar stories, from other counties, are appearing throughout the local media.

In Travis Co.'s SD-25 Convention, the "delegates elected Paul-majority committees to guide them through sorting resolutions and selecting delegates to the state convention in June." Paulunteer "Robert McDonald, an Austin CPA elected the permanent chair of the county's GOP SD 25 convention, said he won the post by about 17 votes."

However, "a similar challenge was tried by Paul supporters at the county's SD 14 meeting, but there was no roll-call vote after it became clear that the temporary chairman, Joe Pojman, and other temporary officers would prevail." (Pojman got out the vote by e-mailing the party membership with dire warnings of a Paul takeover.)

Open warfare broke out at some conventions. In Nueces Co., convention Chairman Mike Bertuzzi "did not recognize the [RPR] group to speak and some members were escorted out by the sergeant at arms. Then about 40 members of the faction convened in another room in what's known as a 'rump convention.' Rump conventions are a separate meeting conducted by a group that feels it has been disenfranchised. Participants can form their own committees and elect their own delegates, then send a report to the state party, which then decides which convention to recognize from that county."

In some places, though, peace broke out instead. At the SD-12 convention in Tarrant Co., "Convention Chairman Tom Quinones worked out a deal to give the Paul camp delegates based on their numbers. Chad Bishop, a Paul delegate, gave a speech seconding Quinones' nomination, saying the district's 'conservative heritage is not lost on us.' Quinones said later, 'I think the Ron Paul delegates will be well-represented on our state delegation list.'"

Patrick Brendel, "Representing Ron Paul," The Paulist Papers, Apr. 16, 2008. paulistpapers.wordpress.com/2008/04/16/representing-ron-paul/

SD-25, SD-14: W. Gardner Selby, "Paul supporters win one, lose one in Travis County," Marshall News Messenger, Mar. 29, 2008. www.marshallnewsmessenger.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2008/03/29/paul_supporters_win_one_lose_o.html

Nueces: Denise Malan, "GOP chairman thwarts takeover," Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Mar. 30, 2008. www.caller.com/news/2008/mar/30/gop-chairman-thwarts-takeover/

SD-12: Mike Lee, "Paul's supporters make inroads at GOP conventions," Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Mar. 30, 2008. www.star-telegram.com/elections/story/552306.html

(To be continued ... )


See also:

"Ron Paul and his rEVOLution"
www.nolanchart.com/article3255.html


"Ron Paul's Delegate Wars (I)"
www.nolanchart.com/article3438.html


"Ron Paul's Delegate Wars (II)"
www.nolanchart.com/article3508.html